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The race for Arch Manning just got a little more interesting...

by: Evan Vieth06/01/26

Just a few hours ago, one of the biggest trade bombshells hit the NFL world.

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NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported that the Los Angeles Rams, already the favorite to win the Super Bowl in 2027, were set to trade for Myles Garrett from the Cleveland Browns, sending rising star EDGE Jared Verse, a 2027 first and two more picks in the future.

It’s a league-altering all-in move from Rams GM Les Snead, adding the NFL’s best defensive player to an already top-five defense that added star CB Trent McDuffie this offseason.

But it also altered the league in another way, one that Texas fans will be very interested in moving forward.

The Cleveland Browns were already seen as one of the worst teams in the league entering the season, boasting a QB battle between 2nd year Shedeur Sanders and, somehow, Deshaun Watson. The only reason to expect success from Cleveland was off the back of Garrett leading a top-three defense while new head coach Todd Monken carries them to a top-20ish unit on the other side.

But with Garrett out of the picture, and another first in the Browns’ back pocket, things got even more interesting.

There are four NFL teams now that have +25000 odds to win the Super Bowl. They’re also all +750 to make the playoffs.

In other words, please waste your money.

Those four are the Browns, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals.

The Tank-off

Texas QB Arch Manning is the current favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.

That doesn’t mean he’s a guarantee to be the top choice, the No. 1 QB from both of the last two drafts came somewhat out of nowhere, but he’s a lot closer to Caleb Williams as a preseason prospect than he is Cade Klubnik or Carson Beck.

Either way, Manning would have to do a lot wrong NOT to be a top-five pick, at the very least. He’s built too well for the modern NFL game at 6’4″, 226 pounds with his athleticism.

All four of the teams above will have scouts at countless Texas, Oregon, Ohio State and Notre Dame games to try and evaluate their QB1. Miami is the only team with any sort of hope for their current QB to be the one that leads a championship run, signing Malik Willis to a three year, $67.5 million contract this year.

But that’s only 17th among QBs in average annual value and overall dollars, the lowest among any starting QB that isn’t on a rookie or one-year deal.

All four of these teams have a clear path to the No. 1 overall pick:

The Dolphins and Cardinals play two of the toughest schedules in the league, leading to the lowest win total odds in the league at 4.5 wins.

The Jets and Brown have the fourth and fifth-easiest schedules, but they have a combined three additional first-rounders in this year’s draft.

The Rams pick for Cleveland likely won’t be the best leverage piece, but the Jets hold three total firsts: their own, the Colts and the most favorable between the Packers and Cowboys.

That kind of arsenal can really tip the scales, and if a team like the Raiders or Titans (5th and 6th in expected wins) ends up with the top pick, they could trade down to where the Jets are for a kings ransom.

But this will likely be a four-way battle to the bottom, and if Manning is as advertised come November, we may see a historic post-deadline tank from at least three of these teams.

The most likely scenario is one of these teams gets the top pick for Manning, so who should Texas fans actually want taking their golden prospect?

The Landing Spots

Let’s get this out of the way right now: all four of these franchises are terrible.

They combine for four playoff wins since 2010. When the Jets top your group, you know it’s execrable.

You simply can’t say, ‘I don’t want Arch to go there because I can’t trust the organization’. You will never trust the organization picking first. A well-run organization has not picked first since the Rams in 2016, and they were on an 11-year playoff drought at that point.

Two things must be taken into account with who you’d prefer getting Manning: offensive weapons and coaching staff.

The most successful No. 1 pick in recent memory has been Joe Burrow, and that’s because he had Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins to throw to by year two.

That’s exactly why the Cardinals and, yes, you’re reading this right, the Jets are the best spot for Manning to go.

The Cardinals have the NFL’s best pass-catching tight end in Trey McBride, the best RB in last year’s class in Jeremiyah Love and two solid WR2 types in Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. With Manning throwing to him, Harrison could be a fourth-year breakout candidate. Maybe.

They also recently hired Mike LaFleur, brother of Matt, who was the offensive coordinator of the Rams for the last three years, helping draw up plays for an eventual Matthew Stafford MVP season.

The Jets have a proven WR in Garrett Wilson, two first-round picks from this past year in TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper, RB Breece Hall, TE Mason Taylor and even former Longhorn Adonai Mitchell. They also have the better of the two OLs, anchored by tackles Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou.

Coaching is a question, but if they have the Arch Manning pick, it will come with a full regime change. They’d probably have one of the best job availabilities for an offensive mind with that group. They also have the two other firsts to add elsewhere.

Cleveland wouldn’t be the end of the world, they’ve added a lot of weapons and some OL help recently, but there aren’t a ton of proven commodities. Monken is a good offensive mind, at least.

Miami would be the worst case, though probably the most likely scenario. The Dolphins have a star at RB in Devon Achane, but their best pass catcher is either Greg Dulcich or Malik Washington. How many casual NFL fans even know who those players are?

Pair that with a suspect OL and the lack of a second first, they honestly would be better off trading back if they got this top pick and getting a haul of picks in return. Jeff Hafley is also a defensive mind, and Bobby Slowik is the OC. It’s been a tough offseason for Quinn Ewers.

Dark Horses

Of course, the draft is never cut and dry. Injuries and unexpected moves can lead to big time shifts in the race to the bottom.

The worst team in the NFC East and South will probably be bad; we just don’t have a good read on who that is at the moment.

It’s probably the Giants and Falcons, especially given James Pearce’s situation. If the Giants had the No. 1 overall pick, it’s likely because Jaxson Dart is either terrible or hurt. They’d take Manning in either scenario, replenishing the family name in the Big Apple.

The Falcons wouldn’t think twice about taking him and moving on from Michael Penix, pairing him with Bijan Robinson. Both spots are better than Miami or Cleveland. The Giants would be fun for a lot of reasons.

Tennessee also could implode under Ward if he doesn’t take that next step and make the shocking move of looking past him after two years. The trade market would be on fire if the Giants or Titans got this pick.

As mentioned multiple times, there are far too many factors to truly pinpoint 1-2 teams that will be taking Manning. The hunt last year for a mediocre top three of picks featured about seven teams. This year, it could be closer to 10 after week 12.

There’s also no guarantee Manning is the No. 1 overall pick, or even the top QB, but it is safe to say that he enters the season as the top prospect, at least outside of WR Jeremiah Smith. With QB valuation in the NFL, Manning takes the top spot.

It’s a fun exercise, especially if you root for either of these AFC East bottom feeders, the Cardinals or, god forbid, the Browns.

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