2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket: May 23 Field of 64 projections

Conference tournament week is moving along. With stolen bids already abound, we have changes in On3’s latest NCAA Tournament projections for college baseball.

The SoCon is a stolen bid, with top-seeded Mercer out. Still, their top-30 RPI keeps them in the field, and eliminating a spot from the bubble. As for other tournaments, our projections put the highest-seeded zero-loss team remaining in as the projected automatic bid.

The SEC leads the way with 11 bids to the NCAA Tournament. Other multi-bid leagues are the ACC (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (4), Sun Belt (4), Conference USA (3), American (2), Big West (2), and Southern (2).

On3 will have another fresh Field of 64 on Sunday morning. The 16 regional host sites will be announced on Sunday night followed by the full official bracket on Monday.

2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Texas State, Mercer, East Carolina, Virginia Tech
First Four Out: Kentucky, NC State, Troy, Michigan
Next Four Out: Kent State, Pittsburgh, Miami (OH), Purdue

Mercer’s top 30 RPI keeps them alive on the bubble, but the resume is light. Still, they get the nod, for now. Texas State, East Carolina and Virginia Tech remain on the right side of the bubble for now. Texas State and East Carolina remain alive in their conference tournaments.

Kentucky is currently No. 37 in RPI, but went 0-1 in the SEC Tournament and while they got to 13 SEC wins, the Wildcats won just two of their ten SEC series. They’re a tricky bubble case, but they’re out for us. NC State is also out after going 0-1 in the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack went 14-16 in the ACC and are currently No. 50 in RPI. Troy is another team still alive in their conference tournament with a chance to rise. They’re No. 41 in RPI with the No. 9 strength of schedule.

Pittsburgh is onto the ACC Tournament semifinals, and up to No. 38 in RPI. But the Panthers went just 11-19 in the ACC this season, putting the question of how much do conference tournaments truly impact a bubble team to the test. Kent State and Miami (OH) are both out of the MAC Tournament, but sit at No. 46 and No. 45 in RPI.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. Boston College (32)
3. Cal Poly*
4. San Diego State*

UCLA is onto the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, and should have control of the top overall seed. Georgia Tech could still catch them, but the Bruins hold onto No. 1 overall yet again. Cal Poly is unbeaten in the Big West Tournament, and needs one more win to clinch that automatic bid.

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (16)
2. Arkansas (18)
3. Arizona State
4. Saint Mary’s*

Oregon will be in action early on Saturday with a spot in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals on the line. A win would further aid their hopes to host, while a loss could force a change with other teams on their heels. Arkansas might be the biggest contender, as they are 2-0 in the SEC Tournament and are one win away from advancing to the championship game.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (8)
2. Coastal Carolina (25)
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. South Dakota State*

Alabama holds onto our final top eight seed in our latest NCAA Tournament projections. The Crimson Tide were one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, but are still No. 6 in RPI after an 18-12 showing in the SEC regular season. They also are No. 2 in strength of schedule.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (9)
2. Oklahoma State (24)
3. East Carolina
4. Holy Cross*

Florida State was a tough cut from the top eight, but they come in at No. 9. The Seminoles are No. 7 in RPI and No. 5 in strength of schedule after going 19-11 in the ACC regular season, but they did go 0-1 in the ACC Tournament.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (5)
2. Virginia (29)
3. Campbell*
4. Rhode Island*

Auburn still has a compelling case to be one of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and they come in at No. 5 overall entering Saturday. The Tigers are No. 3 in RPI and No. 1 in strength of schedule after going 17-13 in SEC play during the regular season. They face off with Arkansas today in the SEC Tournament with a spot in the championship on the line.

Lincoln Regional

1. Nebraska (12)
2. Cincinnati (21)
3. Eastern Illinois*
4. St. John’s*

Nebraska has locked itself in as a host. They’re currently No. 9 in RPI after going 23-7 in Big Ten play, and have advanced into the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. The Cornhuskers have a chance to play into the top eight, but they remain just outside for now.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)
2. Oklahoma (28)
3. High Point*
4. Illinois-Chicago*

North Carolina is in the ACC Tournament semifinals, facing off against Pittsburgh today with a spot in the championship on the line. Win, and UNC might be locked into a top four seed. Lose, and they’ll still finish somewhere in the top six. Here, we also have an interesting 2-seed. Oklahoma is the 28th overall seed, so they should be paired in the 5-8 seeded regional grouping. But with all four of those hosts being from the SEC, the Sooners go to the next-closest seed, which ends up falling on UNC.

Lawrence Regional

1. Kansas (13)*
2. Ole Miss (20)
3. UTSA*
4. Yale*

Kansas is 2-0 so far in the Big 12 Tournament, and they’ll face off against West Virginia in the championship game on Saturday night. Regardless of the outcome, both teams feel pretty good about hosting at this point. Ole Miss was our final host last week, but falls out after an 0-1 showing in the SEC Tournament.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (2)*
2. Missouri State (31)
3. Mercer
4. Long Island*

Georgia Tech is 1-0 so far in the ACC Tournament and can advance to the championship with a win against Miami on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are likely locked into a top two seed, and still have a path to push UCLA for the top overall spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (15)
2. USC (17)
3. TCU
4. Rider*

Mississippi State went 1-1 in the SEC Tournament, losing to Georgia on Thursday. Currently No. 13 in RPI, No. 7 in strength of schedule and 16-14 during the SEC regular season, the Bulldogs feel pretty secure as a regional host. Still, USC is No. 8 in RPI and still alive in the Big Ten Tournament. They could still factor into the discussion as well.

Gainesville Regional

1. Florida (7)
2. Miami (26)
3. Louisiana
4. Florida A&M*

Florida is onto the SEC Tournament semifinals after a 1-0 start to the week. The Gators face off against Georgia, and will lock themselves into the top eight with a win. Even if they lose, it would be tough to push Florida out of the top eight in the NCAA Tournament at this point.

College Station Regional

1. Texas A&M (10)
2. Wake Forest (22)
3. Tarleton State*
4. Lamar*

Texas A&M was shut out in its lone game of the SEC Tournament, falling against Auburn. The Aggies had a shot to get into the top eight, but they now sit at No. 14 in RPI and No. 14 in strength of schedule. They’ll likely fall just outside of the top eight.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (6)
2. Jacksonville State (27)
3. Texas State
4. Lipscomb*

Texas is down to our No. 6 overall seed in this week’s NCAA Tournament after an 0-1 showing in the SEC Tournament. The Longhorns could still end up in the top four, but fall behind UNC and Auburn for us this week. That grouping of teams is close, though, so Texas could end up a spot or two higher.

Hattiesburg Regional

1. Southern Miss (11)*
2. Tennessee (23)
3. Liberty
4. Binghamton*

The Sun Belt Tournament has been full of weather delays, but Southern Miss is still alive and currently 2-0 with a pair of one-run victories. They’re No. 12 in RPI and have 24 wins against Quads 1 and 2, and are locked in as a top 16 seed.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (3)*
2. UCF (30)
3. Samford
4. Milwaukee*

Georgia is our No. 3 overall seed as the projected regular season and SEC Tournament champions. The Bulldogs are up to No. 11 in RPI, helping them secure themselves as a top seed. They’ll face off against Florida on Saturday with a spot in the SEC Tournament championship on the line.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (14)
2. Oregon State (19)
3. Virginia Tech
4. Northern Illinois*

West Virginia is 2-0 in the Big 12 Tournament and have a matchup against Kansas in the Big 12 championship. The Mountaineers feel pretty good as a host, but winning the Big 12 Tournament would 100% lock that in. Oregon State, who doesn’t have a conference tournament to play in, is another team right on the verge of hosting.